Crystal Lake, Illinois 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

789
FXUS63 KDVN 220201
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
801 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain or a rain/snow mix will remain possible east of the
  Mississippi River into this evening.

- Cooler temperatures will dominate the region to start the
  weekend, with a brief warm up into the 50s on Sunday, with
  temperatures dropping again from there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

SPC mesoanalysis had a 998 mb low located over the central
portion of Lake Michigan with a tight pressure gradient on its
southwest flank over parts of S. Wisconsin, E Iowa, and NW
Illinois. Locally, NW winds have been increasing into the early
afternoon with most sites gusting 40 - 45+ mph. As of 200 PM,
the highest gusts today were: 51 mph Cedar Rapids, 49 mph
Anamosa, 48 mph at Davenport/Washington/Muscatine, and 47 mph
Moline. A Wind Advisory will remain in effect for most of the
area, except the far west/southwest, until 8 PM. However, it
will stay windy overnight with gusts of 25 to 35 mph likely, but
at least by this time hold below advisory levels.

In addition to the windy conditions, a band of steady rain and
snow had moved into the eastern portion of the outlook area
during the mid to late morning hours. This area of precipitation
has mainly changed over to rain or a mix of rain and snow as
temps have warmed into the mid/upper 30s. No additional snow
accumulation is expected as rain will be the predominant p-type
this afternoon and evening across the east. Central and western
sections should stay mostly dry into tonight. For the rest of
the overnight period, low clouds will continue to rotate around
the upper low over the Great Lakes, advecting in from the north.
This will keep temperatures up a bit with a range from the
upper 30s east to upper 20s far west.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Friday through Sunday...Weak, lower amplitude upper ridging to get
pressed eastward acrs the mid CONUS for a fair wx regime for most of
this period in the wake of the cyclone. Mainly dry and near
seasonable to slightly above normal temps thru Sat, then some temp
moderation into Sunday with a better return flow push and pushing
temps back up into the 50s. Sfc feature progs on the latest suite of
medium range ensembles still sweep a cool front down through the
area Sunday night, but have trended drier and not much moisture to
work with to produce any precip along the FROPA.

Monday through Wednesday...Longer range prospects suggest a cooler
push in temps this period, with LLVl baroclinicity laying out in more
westerly steering flow along and south of the CWA by Tue. Any kind
of wave propagating through this more progressive flow may try to
kick up isentropic light precip in or near the local area Tue into
Wed with some precip type issues to be dealt with. Will have to
watch for the ejection of a larger wave out of deepening southwest
CONUS longer wave upper trof toward mid and late next week during
the holiday window. Very low confidence on the track and
strength of this system this far out -- stay up to date on the
latest forecast into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 529 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Strong northwest winds will slowly diminish this evening as the
pressure gradient across the region relaxes. Gusts of 20 to 25
knots are forecast overnight. Winds will be lighter on Friday
with forecast speeds around 10 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots are
possible in the afternoon impacting mainly KBRL. MVFR ceilings
are forecast to continue through most of the forecast period
with the potential for ceilings above 3kft after 21 UTC on
Friday. IFR ceilings are possible at KDBQ tonight.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...12/Uttech
AVIATION...Cousins